Which Campaign Issues Resonate Most?

March 10, 2024

We the voting public have conflicting ideas of what this election season should be about.

Trump supporters have a very clear idea it’s about border security and the economy.

Biden supporters see it first and foremost about the threat to our democracy. After that comes a mixed bag of other priorities, led by health care and climate change.

The question on the table is which of these views is more in touch with the concerns of most Americans.

A variety of indicators emerge from nationwide polling conducted for Our Common Purpose by Survey USA in mid-February. The survey began by asking nearly 2,000 likely voters which candidate they will support, delved into the importance of 10 familiar issues, and concluded with a deep dive into what’s behind the lingering preoccupation with the economy. More to come on the latter question at a future date.

Trump led Biden in this poll by the margin of 45%-to-39%, with 10% favoring another candidate and 6% undecided. Trump’s lead is fairly consistent with what other polls are showing.  The Our Common Purpose results indicate, however, that slightly more than 30% of these voters are wavering in one fashion or another. Fitness for office will surely factor into their final choice, but the issues of the day will also weigh heavily.

The 2,000 respondents, who mirror the nationwide voting population, were asked to rate 10 major issues on a scale ranging from not a concern, somewhat important, very important, to critical. The percentages of “critical” ratings is what you’ll be reading about here.

Overall, the economy continues to be the most commonly cited high priority.  This nationwide finding is consistent with the outcome of Our Common Purpose’s survey of the six battleground states in December. The percentage of voters who say each of these issues is “critical”:

1. Economy – 48%
2. Border security – 40%
3. Threat to democracy – 37%
4. Crime – 36%
5. Health care – 30%
6. Budget deficit – 29%
7. Foreign wars – 25%
8. Abortion – 25%
9. Climate change – 21%
10. Public education – 21%

Some of the differences between Trump and Biden supporters are stark. For Trump voters, the top priority is border security. That ranks as the lowest concern for Biden voters. For Biden voters, climate change is the third highest priority. For Trump voters, it ranks lowest.

Here’s what the poll shows are their contrasting lists of priorities:

The importance of issues to Trump supporters

1. Border security – 62%
2. Economy – 58%
3. Crime – 45%
4. Budget deficit – 37%
5. Threat to democracy – 33%
6. Foreign wars – 28%
7. Health care – 23%
8. Public education – 18%
9. Abortion – 16%
10. Climate change – 8%

The contrasting importance of issues to Biden supporters

1. Threat to democracy – 48%
2. Health care – 39%
3. Climate change – 38%
4. Abortion – 36%
5. Economy – 35%
6. Crime – 29%
7. Public education – 25%
8. Budget deficit – 22%
9. Foreign wars – 22%
10. Border security – 19%

Biden highlighted some of the differences in his State of the Union address on Thursday, starting with his statement that “not since President Lincoln and the Civil War have freedom and democracy been under assault here at home as they are today.”

He claimed that the issue of abortion rights would carry the day. “Those bragging about overturning Roe v. Wade have no clue about the power of women. But they found out when reproductive freedom was on the ballot and we won in 2022, and 2023. And we’ll win again in 2024.”

Perhaps he will be proven right but abortion rights isn’t even the most significant priority of most women. The poll shows 30% of women rate it as critical, lower than they ranked a number of other issues led by the economy at 50%.

Which party has a better handle on the concerns of most Americans? There are several indicators that might encourage Republicans and concern Democrats.

More cohesiveness across the income strata of Trump supporters

Border security and the economy are the issues for Trump supporters, no matter whether they are poor or well-to-do.

Their answers to follow-up questions also show an uncanny consistency regardless of circumstances. No matter whether their annual household income is below $40,000 or above $150,000, nearly equal high percentages say they feel the national economy is doing poorly and their local economy is weak. The closeness of their answers makes it difficult to know whether this reflects their reality or the influence of a strong messaging campaign.

The only difference comes when they are asked if someone in their immediate family is struggling financially. Of those below $40,000, 69% say yes. Of those above $150,000, 32% say yes.

Biden supporters have one parallel in consistency. Those who are firm in supporting him, regardless of their income, rate threat to democracy as the biggest issue.

More cohesiveness among those fully supporting Trump and those leaning to him

The levels of conviction are slightly lower for those who are merely leaning to voting for Trump, but the issues are the same.  The clearcut top priorities are once again border security and the economy.

By comparison, there’s a bit of a disconnect among those who are leaning to Biden. The economy creeps in as being more important to those at lower-income levels, than it is for those of similar income who are fully supporting him.

Far and away, one issue for third-party backers and undecideds

You guessed it. The economy stands out for these voters as well.  All the other issues are clumped together at a significantly lower level of importance.

Other than for Biden’s strongest supporters, like it or not, that’s where most voters are at the moment.

Biden acutely recognizes what he protests is a disconnect between the perception and his actual record.  “The American people are writing the greatest comeback story never told,” he said in his State of the Union address.  “So let’s tell the story here, tell it here and now.”

It remains to be seen how many voters will catch up to the story by November.