Showdown on Ukraine

April 14, 2024

Pity poor Mike Johnson.

As the House Speaker weighs somehow bringing the momentous question of aid for Ukraine to the House floor this week, he faces a dagger if he does and a club if he doesn’t.

To his credit, Johnson is taking his leadership position – not just of the House but more generally of the federal government – with a deep sense of responsibility.  As such, he seems to have accepted that it’s imperative to U.S. interests to resolve the Ukraine question.

If he does, he’s sure to be pilloried by the hard-right element that has made life miserable for him and his predecessor and has brought Congress to a near standstill.

If he doesn’t, he will be subject not just to broader criticism but the embarrassment of an insurgency from an entirely different direction.  Common-sense, centrist legislators will attempt to shove aside Johnson to bring Ukraine to the House floor on their own.

As such, the matter at hand is not only vital to the war in Ukraine but could come to symbolize the brewing battle in this country over whether government, and ultimately the populace in general, should be guided along by the middle majority or by the extremes.

Any provision of funds to Ukraine is stridently opposed by far-right members of the House such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.  The Georgia Republican’s motion to vacate the Speakership– the same tool used to oust prior Speaker Kevin McCarthy – is the dagger that Johnson faces.

“Funding Ukraine is probably one of the most egregious things that he can do,” Greene told CNN last week.

On the other hand, if Johnson doesn’t move forward in some satisfactory fashion, members of the centrist Problem Solvers Caucus are threatening to employ a rarely used device called a discharge petition to bring their own measure to the floor.

This is the club hanging over Johnson, though it’s one the sponsors would clearly prefer not to swing into action.  As much as anything, they’re trying to use the threat of such to keep Johnson from caving to the extremists.

“It’s a countervailing pressure to the pressure from the other side,” Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick told a No Labels session last week.  Fitzpatrick, R-PA, is co-chair of the Problem Solvers Caucus, which is made up of equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats.

Fitzpatrick and his co-leader on this particular effort, Jared Golden, D-ME, maintained that they want to give the Speaker the opportunity to move forward on his terms.  But if that doesn’t work, they said, there will be “no holds barred” on the discharge petition.

Fitzpatrick said he for one is in the dark as to what the Speaker will propose and how he plans to get the votes just to get it to the House floor.  Johnson hasn’t been forthcoming on how he intends to proceed, with conflicting pressures coming from every direction.

Most but not all Democrats want the House to vote exactly as is on the $95 billion Senate bill that combines aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan with humanitarian assistance for Gaza. While some have opposed unfettered military aid to Israel, pressure ratcheted up this weekend in response to the missile and drone attack by Iran.

Republicans, meanwhile, have been floating a variety of alternatives to direct aid.  One is to revive the Lend-Lease program from World War II.  Another is to pay for some of the aid by selling off Russian sovereign assets that have been frozen.

The biggest variable, however, is whether Johnson will attempt to marry the aid package to securing the southern border.  That’s a bottom-line requirement for the extremist right, although unfortunately it’s also the provision that caused them to scuttle the entire package in the last go-round.

Johnson acknowledged the challenges at a news conference on Wednesday, according to The New York Times, saying he was sifting through “a lot of different ideas” raised by his colleagues for aiding Ukraine.

“It’s a very complicated matter, and a very complicated time,” the Times reported him saying, “And the clock is ticking on it and everyone here feels the urgency of that.  But what’s required is that you reach consensus on it.”

The sentiment is laudable.  In reality, however, it’s not going to happen if hardliners are allowed to call the shots.  It is only achievable if Johnson seeks to find consensus among the reasonable-minded majority of the House. This will require House Republicans working with House Democrats, and vice versa, even to the extent of Democrats voting to protect Johnson’s position if they see him doing the right thing.

Cooperation of that sort will be required if we are to help Ukraine.  It’s also what’s best for America.