Options to Biden-Trump Look Dim in Poll

Dec. 27, 2023

Those wishing to avoid another smash-up between Joe Biden and Donald Trump had better get their act together in a hurry.  The only outside hope at the moment is Nikki Haley, and it’s a distant one.

Our recent poll shows that the upcoming Republican primaries and a nascent third-party presidential campaign that has nettled Democrats are thus far drawing little more than a yawn in the six key battleground states.  This disinterest will come as a severe disappointment to those who are hoping somehow to avoid a reprise of 2020, or more pointedly are opposed to a second term for the past president or, for others, the current president.

The public opinion surveys done for Our Common Purpose have consistently shown that Americans want better for the country than what we have.  But the latest iteration of the poll, focusing specifically on the 2024 presidential election, shows that our better angels don’t always win out.

Despite all the evidence of damage done by division – witness the dysfunction in Congress – and the good that common sense tells us would come of working together, we persist in hunkering down in our partisan trenches.

The poll, conducted by Survey USA in the first week of December, explored a series of what if scenarios with 880 likely voters.  What happens if it’s again Trump versus Biden?  What happens, given all the attention being paid to the upcoming GOP primaries, if the candidate ends up being someone other than Trump?  What happens if a third-party candidate mounts a real challenge?

The top line shows Trump leading Biden by the razor-thin margin of one percentage point, 44% to 43%, across the aggregate of six battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin).   That’s a tad tighter than other polls have shown but some variation is to be expected with a margin of error of +/- 4%.

More concerning is that with more than 10 months to go before the election, fully 75% of the respondents (38% for Trump and 37% for Biden) say they are locked into their votes.

This even though many acknowledge they have concerns with their own candidate.  While it’s Trump who is embroiled in legal problems, it’s Biden’s supporters who are more inclined to worry about their own guy with 11% admitting to serious concerns and another whopping 53% to some concerns.

They’ll be voting for Biden anyway because their concerns about Trump are even more pronounced.  More than 4 of 10 of respondents say their vote will be determined as much or more by their concerns about the opposition candidate, this is equally the case on both sides of the fence, than by the considerable policy issues faced by the nation.

The striking thing is that despite their concerns they are nonetheless channeling their attention on the Big Two, rather than considering the alternatives.

If 75% are firm for Trump or Biden, that leaves only 25% who at this juncture could be classified as “persuadable.”  They are either wavering in their support of one candidate or the other, aren’t decided, or couldn’t support either one if they were the only two in the race.

Out of deference to the sitting President, Democrats aren’t offering up any alternatives. but what if Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley were to displace Trump on the GOP side?  The poll shows that in the battleground states, at least at the moment, neither fares as well as Trump.  Both trailed by 8 percentage points in head-to-head matches against Biden.

The only ray of hope is that more voters – in particular independents – say they are as yet undecided about Haley.  In the matchup of Trump versus Biden, 14% of independents say they wouldn’t vote and 11% are undecided.  With Haley versus Biden, those numbers go up to 18% and 20%.

What about adding a third-party candidate to the mix?  The poll shows voters in the battleground states aren’t much interested in that possibility either.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has declared as an independent, draws 12% support in a three-person field with Biden and Trump.  Joe Manchin, who hasn’t declared anything but stands as perhaps the most prominent of the spokesmen for the No Labels initiative that has Democrats screaming spoiler, attracts a mere 5% against Biden and Trump.

Of course, lots can change on the campaign trail or in the courtroom before November.   Other polls show Haley gaining ground in New Hampshire.  With a good showing there, voters in the battleground states likely will pay her more notice.  That’s about the best chance there is for breaking up the Biden-Trump monopoly.

But for the moment anyway, voters in the battleground states appear to prefer seeing the two heavyweights, rampant distrust of Trump in the one corner and misgivings about Biden in the other, duking it out to the finish.  As if this will settle matters.

Yes, there will be a winner, albeit likely a disputed one.  Whoever wins, the animus will go unabated.  We will squander the opportunity for the fresh start the country desperately needs, and instead double down once again on the partisanship that divides us.  Sad to say, a good portion of the responsibility will rest with we the voters.

–Richard Gilman